Manufacturing PMI® at 46.4%; July 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

TEMPE, Ariz. — August 1, 2023 — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in July for the ninth consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The July Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 46 percent recorded in June. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates an eighth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.3 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the figure of 45.6 percent recorded in June. The Production Index reading of 48.3 percent is a 1.6-percentage point increase compared to June’s figure of 46.7 percent. The Prices Index registered 42.6 percent, up 0.8 percentage point compared to the June figure of 41.8 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.8 percent, 4.1 percentage points higher than the June reading of 38.7 percent. The Employment Index dropped further into contraction, registering 44.4 percent, down 3.7 percentage points from June’s reading of 48.1 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 46.1 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the 45.7 percent recorded in June. In the last eight months, the Supplier Deliveries Index has recorded its eight lowest readings since March 2009 (43.2 percent). (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Inventories Index increased by 2.1 percentage points to 46.1 percent; the June reading was 44 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 46.2 percent is 1.1 percentage points lower than June’s figure of 47.3 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 49.6 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the 49.3 percent reported in June.”

Fiore continues, “The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank again, but the uptick in the PMI® indicates a marginally slower rate of contraction. The July composite index reading reflects companies continuing to manage outputs down as order softness continues. Demand eased again, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting, though at a slower rate, (2) New Export Orders Index moving deeper into contraction and (3) Backlog of Orders Index improving compared to June but remaining at a low level. The Customers’ Inventories Index reading indicated appropriate buyer/supplier tension, which is neutral to slightly positive for future production. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) was negative, with a combined 2.1-percentage point downward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Amid mixed sentiment about when significant growth will return, panelists’ companies reduced production and continued to manage head counts down, to a greater extent than in previous months. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index again indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index remained in contraction territory as panelists’ companies continued to try to mitigate inventories exposure. The Prices Index remained in ‘decreasing’ territory, at a level generally not seen since early in the coronavirus pandemic (a reading of 40.8 percent in May 2020). Manufacturing lead times sentiment improved again but remain at elevated levels.

“Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one — Petroleum & Coal Products — registered growth in July.

“Demand remains weak but marginally better compared to June, production slowed due to lack of work, and suppliers continue to have capacity. There are signs of more employment reduction actions in the near term to better match production output. Ninety-two percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in July, up from 71 percent in June. However, the share of manufacturing GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 25 percent in July, compared to 44 percent in June, a clear positive,” says Fiore.

The two manufacturing industries that reported growth in July are: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Furniture & Related Products. The 16 industries reporting contraction in July, in the following order, are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Machinery.

What Respondents Are Saying

“Current U.S. market conditions of inflationary and recessionary tactics affecting overall business. Customers are reducing or not placing orders as forecast, (putting) internal focus on reducing financial liabilities and overhead costs.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

“Sales in our industry are extremely slow entering into the second half of the year, and no upturn is expected until at least the fourth quarter.” [Chemical Products]

“Demand is softening. Some pricing starting to decrease. Back orders mostly resolved.” [Transportation Equipment]

“Stable demand for the next four to six months, but longer-term uncertainty. While customer growth is projected, we cannot point to fundamentals that sustain it. Supply conditions are similar to pre-pandemic, except for energy and raw input costs. Logistics costs have settled, transit times continue to shorten and capacities at most suppliers are sufficient.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

“We are still in our slow season but will soon ramp up production to prepare for our busy season in late fall. Inventories aren’t changed much now but will be increasing soon. The reports on cooling inflation and consumer confidence are driving expectations of a very strong back half (of the year).” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

“Suppliers are starting to reach out looking for new business. Softening is occurring in the China markets.” [Machinery]

“Sales remain higher than forecast. Supplier capacity issues remain an issue.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

“Semiconductor trade restrictions against China have negatively impacted our industrial business in North America.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

“June was a strong month, but July has been way off for construction.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

“Order book continues to be strong. Working overtime to complete orders. Labor availability is still the number one constraint impacting production. Cannot find qualified salaried or skilled trades people to hire. Hourly temporary employees are of poor quality and walk off after taking the job.” [Primary Metals]

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.*Number of months moving in current direction.

Commodities Reported Up/Down In Price And In Short Supply

Commodities Up in PriceElectrical Components (9); Natural Gas*; Plastic Resins*; Portland Cement; Steel*; and Steel Products*.

Commodities Down in PriceAluminum (2); Caustic Soda; Corrugate (8); Diesel (3); Freight (9); Isocyanates; Methanol; Natural Gas*; Ocean Freight (2); Packaging Materials; Paper (3); Plastic Resins* (14); Polypropylene (3); Solvents; Steel* (4); Steel — Alloy; Steel — Hot Rolled (3); Steel — Stainless; and Steel Products* (2).

Commodities in Short SupplyBrake Components; Electrical Components (34); Electrical Controls and Equipment (2); Electronic Assemblies (2); Electronic Components (32); Hydraulic Components (2); Labor — Temporary; Semiconductors (32); and Steel Products.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.*Indicates both up and down in price.

July 2023 Manufacturing Index Summaries

Manufacturing PMI®The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in July, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the reading of 46 percent recorded in June. “This is the ninth month of contraction and continuation of a downward trend that began in June 2022. That trend is reflected in the Manufacturing PMI®’s 12-month average falling to 48.3 percent. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, none are in growth territory. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, only one (Petroleum & Coal Products) registered growth in July. The New Orders Index logged an 11th month in contraction territory. For a second straight month, none of the 10 subindexes were above 50 percent,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the July Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy contracted for an eighth consecutive month after 30 straight months of expansion. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the July reading (46.4 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.8 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Fiore.

The Last 12 Months

New OrdersISM®’s New Orders Index contracted for the 11th consecutive month in July, registering 47.3 percent, an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to June’s reading of 45.6 percent. “Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only one (Chemical Products) reported increased new orders. New order level contraction slowed compared to June, as panelists’ companies continued to deal with uncertain customer demand,” says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in July are: Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Chemical Products. Twelve industries reported a decline in new orders in July, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

ProductionThe Production Index registered 48.3 percent in July, 1.6 percentage points higher than the June reading of 46.7 percent, contracting for the second straight month after one month of expansion preceded by five consecutive months in contraction. “Of the top six industries, one — Machinery — expanded in July. With the decline in backlogs and weak new order levels, build rates are being managed down more aggressively,” says Fiore. An index above 52.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.

The three industries reporting growth in production during the month of July are: Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Paper Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in production in July — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Chemical Products. Seven industries reported no change in production in July compared to June.

EmploymentISM®’s Employment Index registered 44.4 percent in July, 3.7 percentage points lower than the June reading of 48.1 percent. “The index indicated employment contracted for a second month after two months of expansion preceded by two months of contraction. This is its lowest reading since July 2020 (43.7 percent). Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only one (Machinery) expanded. Labor management sentiment at Business Survey Committee respondents’ companies indicates a slowdown in hiring, with attrition, freezes and layoffs actively in place, as noted by many panelists and consistent with their companies’ decline in production,” says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, three reported employment growth in July: Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Paper Products. The eight industries reporting a decrease in employment in July, in the following order, are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment. Seven industries reported no change in employment in July compared to June.

Supplier Deliveries†The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations improved for the 10th straight month in July, as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 46.1 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 45.7 percent reported in June. The Supplier Deliveries Index’s lowest reading in the last 14 years was in March 2009 (43.2 percent). While the index has been in contraction since October 2022, for the last eight months, the index has averaged 45.1 percent, consistently registering just above its March 2009 level. Of the top six manufacturing industries, only Petroleum & Coal Products reported slower deliveries. “Panelists’ comments continue to indicate that suppliers, in most cases, have the capacity to meet all of their customers’ current demand forecasts,” says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

The three manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in July are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The eight industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in July as compared to June — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in July compared to June.

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InventoriesThe Inventories Index registered 46.1 percent in July, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 44 percent reported for June. “Manufacturing inventories contracted at a slower rate compared to June. Of the six big industries, three (Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) increased manufacturing inventories in July. Panelists’ companies continue to watch manufacturing inventory levels closely as future demand remains uncertain. In the last four months, the index has recorded its lowest levels since August 2020 (44.9 percent),” says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the four reporting higher inventories in July are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting contracting inventories in July — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Customers’ Inventories†ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index registered 48.7 percent in July, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 46.2 percent reported for June. “Customers’ inventory levels are at the proper tension as panelists report their companies’ customers have the proper amount of inventory, a potential slight positive for future production,” says Fiore.

The eight industries reporting customers’ inventories as too high in July are, in order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Primary Metals. The six industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in July — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.

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Prices†The ISM® Prices Index registered 42.6 percent, 0.8 percentage point higher compared to the June reading of 41.8 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased in July for the third consecutive month. The index increased slightly compared to June (indicating a slower rate of price decreases) after a dramatic fall into contraction (or “decreasing”) territory in May after one month in expansion. “Panelists’ comments indicate that we are in a buyers’ market, as sellers move to filling order books to support their weak backlogs. Of the top six manufacturing industries, two (Petroleum & Coal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) reported price increases in July. Eighty-six percent of panelists’ companies reported ‘same’ or ‘lower’ prices in July, compared to 89 percent in June,” says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In July, two industries reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The 14 industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in July — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Machinery.

Prices

Backlog of Orders†ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.8 percent, a 4.1-percentage point increase compared to June’s reading of 38.7 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the 10th consecutive month (though at a slower rate in July) after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, two (Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment) expanded order backlogs in July. “The index remains in strong contraction but has slowed compared to the previous month, as new order rates improve and production slows again,” says Fiore.

The three industries reporting growth in order backlogs in July are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 11 industries reporting lower backlogs in July — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

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New Export Orders†ISM®’s New Export Orders Index registered 46.2 percent in July, 1.1 percentage points lower than the June reading of 47.3 percent. “The New Export Orders Index indicated that export orders contracted for the second month in July after being unchanged in May, preceded by nine straight months in contraction territory and 25 months of expansion from July 2020 to July 2022. Comments continue to note the weak performance in order levels from China and Europe as an ongoing concern,” says Fiore.

Three industries reported growth in new export orders in July: Wood Products; Primary Metals; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in July — in the following order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery.

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Imports†ISM®’s Imports Index registered 49.6 percent in July, an increase of 0.3 percentage point compared to June’s figure of 49.3 percent. “Imports contracted for the ninth consecutive month, at a slower rate in July, following a five-month period of expansion. The index shows stable month-over-month performance, and panelists’ comments continue to indicate that the readings reflect sluggish demand. Shipping capacity and prices remain accommodative,” says Fiore.

The five industries reporting an increase in import volumes in July are: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. The seven industries that reported lower volumes of imports in July — listed in the following order — are: Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. Six industries reported no change in imports in July compared to June.

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†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying PolicyThe average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in July was 174 days, a decrease of one day compared to June. Average lead time in July for Production Materials was 84 days, an increase of one day. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 46 days, a decrease of one day compared to June.

Posted: August 1, 2023

Source: Institute for Supply Management